They said Melbourne would be unlikely to get both a high draft pick and salary removed from their books, but if they made a compromise, each player would attract more than one suitor.
The compromise would mean Melbourne either offering to forgo a high pick in return for the player to wipe their salary off the club’s books or paying part of the player’s salary in exchange for a reasonable draft selection. It’s also possible the players could agree to new terms with a new club under a new contract if that club agreed to hand over a high draft pick and the player took a reduced wage to minimise the impact on the salary cap of their new employer.
Such a compromise could create a market, and the ensuing competition between opposition clubs would drive the potential return to Melbourne up.
Petracca, who turns 30 early next year, would be more in demand than Oliver according to two competition sources who said clubs would consider whether the Norm Smith’s medallist’s most recent form was related to the environment and his role.
Petracca may be considered the missing piece for a range of Victorian clubs pushing to win a premiership. Hawthorn, Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs and Geelong are the most appealing clubs on that front.
Carlton would not have cap space to get Petracca unless Tom DeKoning left while Essendon, St Kilda, Richmond and North Melbourne remain in a building phase.
Sydney could also contemplate Petracca, particularly if Chad Warner departs, with the Swans able to offer many commercial opportunities for the ambitious midfielder.
Geelong has a first round draft pick, but is one of four clubs who also met with Gold Coast’s Matt Rowell. The Cats are also likely – along with nine other Victorian clubs – to consider the prospect of obtaining Harley Reid when he comes out of contract. They also have an understanding of Oliver’s position.
However, like Hawthorn and the Bulldogs, the Cats could trade future picks to make a bid. Essendon is likely to take their two first round picks (one of which is attached to Melbourne) to the draft, while St Kilda have their sights on Blues’ ruckman De Koning and Port Adelaide’s Miles Bergman.
Collingwood only have future draft picks at their disposal after trading out their past two future picks to secure Dan Houston and Lachie Schultz.
Smart decision-making could put the Demons back on track quickly, however the club’s hierarchy have not shown the stomach required to jettison their premiership heroes.
They have a good stock of emerging young talent after adding two players inside the top 15 picks at each of the past two drafts, with Caleb Windsor, Koltyn Tholstrup, Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay all showing early promise.
Collingwood NGA and father-son bounty to force decisions
The Magpies will be on the hunt for higher picks if the form of their father-son prospect Tom McGuane, son of premiership midfielder Mick, and Next Generation Academy participant Zac McCarthy continues.
Rival recruiters have talked up the potential Magpie pair – on early-season form – as first round picks in this year’s national draft. If opposition clubs did bid on the pair in the first round, it would force the Magpies to find enough draft capital to match any bids under the new AFLD draft points bidding system.
Based on current ladder positions, Collingwood are poised to enter this year’s draft at pick 33. Although it’s early days, it is becoming clear the Magpies have motivation to secure a pick in the first round.
Old bunch of free agents fail to inspire
There were only five players marked as restricted free agents on the 2025 list released by the AFL on Monday. The Brisbane Lions’ Brandon Starcevich, Carlton’s Tom DeKoning, Hawthorn’s James Worpel, the Bulldogs’ Ed Richards and West Coast’s Oscar Allen are those yet to re-sign with their respective clubs.
With all due respect to them, the list is underwhelming. It’s an indication of the effect long-term contracts are having on the trading pool, with North Melbourne’s Luke Davies-Uniacke recently joining fellow 2017 draft graduates Andrew Brayshaw, Sam Taylor, Brent Daniels and Noah Balta in signing a long-term deal to spurn free agency.
Richards is expected to stay at the Bulldogs, but the respective futures of the other four players – who all turn 27 in 2026 – remain uncertain.
Essendon’s Sam Draper is an unrestricted free agent, which means the Bombers have no rights to match an offer from an opposition club if he chooses to jump ship.
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It makes him an attractive prospect for Adelaide, who need a ruckman. However, the Bombers, having lost second ruckman Nick Bryan to a knee reconstruction and with Todd Goldstein playing what is almost certain to be his final season, will be keen to retain him.
Draper will turn 28 in 2026, but most of the 98 unrestricted free agents are older than him. In fact, just 17 of the unsigned unrestricted free agents will be aged below 28 in 2026.
Melbourne premiership forward Charlie Spargo and St Kilda’s Liam Stocker are the best performed prospects of the youngest band of unsigned unrestricted free agents.
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